SparcS Center

Full publication list

Floodplains as an Achilles’ heel of Amazonian forest resilience

Flores, B.M., Holmgren, M., Xu, C., van Nes, E.H., Jakovac, C.C., Mesquita, R.C.G. & Scheffer, M. (2017)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences early edition [Full text]

Creating a safe operating space for wetlands in a changing climate

Green, A.J., Alcorlo, P., Peeters, E.T.H.M., Morris, E.P., Espinar, J.L., Bravo-Utrera, M.A., Bustamante, J., Díaz-Delgado, R., Koelmans, A.A., Mateo, R., Mooij, W.M., Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2017)

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment in press [Full text]

Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study

van Hooijdonk, I.G.S., Moene, A.F., Scheffer, M., Clercx, H.J.H. & van de Wiel, B.J.H. (2017)

Boundary-Layer Meteorology 162 (2):283-306 [Full text]

Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability-prospects and limitations

Bathiany, S., Van Der Bolt, B., Williamson, M.S., Lenton, T.M., Scheffer, M., Van Nes, E.H. & Notz, D. (2016)

Cryosphere 10 (4):1631-1645 [Full text]

Response

Battiston, S., Farmer, D., Flache, A., Garlaschelli, D., Haldane, A., Heesterbeek, H., Hommes, C., Jaeger, C., May, R. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Science 352 (6283):302 [Full text]

Complexity theory and financial regulation: Economic policy needs interdisciplinary network analysis and behavioral modeling

Battiston, S., Farmer, J.D., Flache, A., Garlaschelli, D., Haldane, A.G., Heesterbeek, H., Hommes, C., Jaeger, C., May, R. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Science 351 (6275):818-819 [Full text]

Why are forests so scarce in subtropical South America? The shaping roles of climate, fire and livestock

Bernardi, R.E., Holmgren, M., Arim, M. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Forest Ecology and Management 363:212-217 [Full text]

Why are forests so scarce in subtropical South America? The shaping roles of climate, fire and livestock

Bernardi, R.E., Holmgren, M., Arim, M. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Forest Ecology and Management 363:212-217 [Full text]

Kinds versus continua: A review of psychometric approaches to uncover the structure of psychiatric constructs

Borsboom, D., Rhemtulla, M., Cramer, A.O.J., Van Der Maas, H.L.J., Scheffer, M. & Dolan, C.V. (2016)

Psychological Medicine 46 (8):1567-1579 [Full text]

Major depression as a complex dynamic system

Cramer, A.O.J., Van Borkulo, C.D., Giltay, E.J., Van Der Maas, H.L.J., Kendler, K.S., Scheffer, M. & Borsboom, D. (2016)

PLoS ONE 11 (12)[Full text]

To Tree or Not to Tree: Cultural Views from Ancient Romans to Modern Ecologists

Holmgren, M. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Ecosystems:1-7 [Full text]

When can positive interactions cause alternative stable states in ecosystems?

Kéfi, S., Holmgren, M. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Functional Ecology 30 (1):88-97 [Full text]

Social norms as solutions

Nyborg, K., Anderies, J.M., Dannenberg, A., Lindahl, T., Schill, C., Schlüter, M., Adger, W.N., Arrow, K.J., Barrett, S., Carpenter, S., Chapin, F.S., III, Crépin, A.S., Daily, G., Ehrlich, P., Folke, C., Jager, W., Kautsky, N., Levin, S.A., Madsen, O.J., Polasky, S., Scheffer, M., Walker, B., Weber, E.U., Wilen, J., Xepapadeas, A. & De Zeeuw, A. (2016)

Science 354 (6308):42-43 [Full text]

Slowing Down of Recovery as Generic Risk Marker for Acute Severity Transitions in Chronic Diseases

Olde Rikkert, M.G.M., Dakos, V., Buchman, T.G., Boer, R.D., Glass, L., Cramer, A.O.J., Levin, S., Van Nes, E., Sugihara, G., Ferrari, M.D., Tolner, E.A., Van De Leemput, I., Lagro, J., Melis, R. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Critical Care Medicine 44 (3):601-606 [Full text]

Anticipating societal collapse; Hints from the stone age

Scheffer, M. (2016)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113 (39):10733-10735 [Full text]

Bistability, Spatial Interaction, and the Distribution of Tropical Forests and Savannas

Staal, A., Dekker, S.C., Xu, C. & van Nes, E.H. (2016)

Ecosystems 19 (6):1080-1091 [Full text]

Erratum to: Multiple feedbacks and the prevalence of alternate stable states on coral reefs

van de Leemput, I.A., Hughes, T.P., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Coral Reefs 35 (3):867 [Full text]

Multiple feedbacks and the prevalence of alternate stable states on coral reefs

van de Leemput, I.A., Hughes, T.P., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Coral Reefs 35 (3):857-865 [Full text]

What Do You Mean, "Tipping Point"?

van Nes, E.H., Arani, B.M.S., Staal, A., van der Bolt, B., Flores, B.M., Bathiany, S. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Trends in Ecology & Evolution 31 (12):902–904 [Full text]

Remotely sensed resilience of tropical forests

Verbesselt, J., Umlauf, N., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H., Herold, M., Zeileis, A. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Nature Climate Change 6 (11):1028-1031 [Full text]

Remotely sensed canopy height reveals three pantropical ecosystem states

Xu, C., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H., Staal, A. & Scheffer, M. (2016)

Ecology 97 (9):2518-2521 [Full text]

Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems

Carpenter, S.R., Brock, W.A., Folke, C., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (46):14384-14389 [Full text]

Understanding migraine using dynamic network biomarkers

Dahlem, M.A., Kurths, J., Ferrari, M.D., Aihara, K., Scheffer, M. & May, A. (2015)

Cephalalgia 35 (7):627-630 [Full text]

Resilience indicators: Prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

Dakos, V., Carpenter, S.R., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 370 (1659):20130263 [Full text]

Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

Drijfhout, S., Bathiany, S., Beaulieu, C., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Huntingford, C., Scheffer, M., Sgubin, G. & Swingedouw, D. (2015)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (43):E5777-e5786 [Full text]

Hysteresis in an experimental phytoplankton population

Faassen, E.J., Veraart, A.J., Van Nes, E.H., Dakos, V., Lürling, M. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

Oikos 124 (12):1617-1623 [Full text]

How to Break the Cycle of Low Workforce Diversity: A Model for Change

O’Brien, K.R., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E.H. & van der Lee, R. (2015)

PLoS ONE 10 (7):e0133208 [Full text]

Early warning signs for acute episodes in chronic diseases

Olde Rikkert, M.G.M., Melis, R.J.F., Claassen, J.A.H.R., Ferrari, M.D., Lagro, J., Tolner, E.A. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde 159 (5):A8150 [Full text]

Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems

Scheffer, M., Barrett, S., Carpenter, S.R., Folke, C., Green, A.J., Holmgren, M., Hughes, T.P., Kosten, S., van de Leemput, I.A., Nepstad, D.C., van Nes, E.H., Peeters, E.T.H.M. & Walker, B. (2015)

Science 347 (6228):1317-1319 [Full text]

Generic Indicators of Ecological Resilience: Inferring the Chance of a Critical Transition

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V. & Van Nes, E.H. (2015)

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 46:145-167 [Full text]

The mystery of missing trubs revisited: A response to McGlone et al. and Qian and Ricklefs

Scheffer, M., Vergnon, R., Cornelissen, J.H.H.C., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., van Nes, E.H. & Xu, C. (2015)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 30 (1):7-8 [Full text]

The Evolution of Functionally Redundant Species; Evidence from Beetles

Scheffer, M., Vergnon, R., van Nes, E.H., Cuppen, J.G.M., Peeters, E.T.H.M., Leijs, R. & Nilsson, A.N. (2015)

PLoS ONE 10 (10):e0137974 [Full text]

Synergistic effects of drought and deforestation on the resilience of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest

Staal, A., Dekker, S.C., Hirota, M. & van Nes, E.H. (2015)

Ecological Complexity 22 (0):65-75 [Full text]

Resilience of Alternative States in Spatially Extended Ecosystems

van de Leemput, I.A., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

PLoS ONE 10 (2):e0116859 [Full text]

Causal feedbacks in climate change

van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M., Brovkin, V., Lenton, T.M., Ye, H., Deyle, E. & Sugihara, G. (2015)

Nature Climate Change 5:445–448 [Full text]

A Changing Number of Alternative States in the Boreal Biome: Reproducibility Risks of Replacing Remote Sensing Products

Xu, C., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H., Hirota, M., Chapin III, F. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

PLoS ONE 10 (11):e0143014 [Full text]

Can we infer plant facilitation from remote sensing? A test across global drylands

Xu, C., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H., Maestre, F.T., Soliveres, S., Berdugo, M., Kéfi, S., Marquet, P.A., Abades, S. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

Ecological Applications 25 (6):1456-1462 [Full text]

Local facilitation may cause tipping points on a landscape level preceded by early-warning indicators

Xu, C., Van Nes, E.H., Holmgren, M., Kéfi, S. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

American Naturalist 186 (4):E81-e90 [Full text]

Temperate forest and open landscapes are distinct alternative states as reflected in canopy height and tree cover

Xu, C., Vergnon, R., Cornelissen, J.H.C., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2015)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 30 (9):501–502 [Full text]

Climate engineering reconsidered

Barrett, S., Lenton, T.M., Millner, A., Tavoni, A., Carpenter, S., Anderies, J.M., Chapin Iii, F.S., Crépin, A.S., Daily, G., Ehrlich, P., Folke, C., Galaz, V., Hughes, T., Kautsky, N., Lambin, E.F., Naylor, R., Nyborg, K., Polasky, S., Scheffer, M., Wilen, J., Xepapadeas, A. & De Zeeuw, A. (2014)

Nature Climate Change 4 (7):527-529 [Full text]

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset of collapse in mutualistic communities

Dakos, V. & Bascompte, J. (2014)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (49):17546-17551 [Full text]

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

Downing, A.S., van Nes, E.H., Balirwa, J.S., Beuving, J., Bwathondi, P.O.J., Chapman, L.J., Cornelissen, I.J.M., Cowx, I.G., Goudswaard, K.P.C., Hecky, R.E., Janse, J.H., Janssen, A.B.G., Kaufman, L., Kishe-Machumu, M.A., Kolding, J., Ligtvoet, W., Mbabazi, D., Medard, M., Mkumbo, O.C., Mlaponi, E., Munyaho, A.T., Nagelkerke, L.A.J., Ogutu-Ohwayo, R., Ojwang, W.O., Peter, H.K., Schindler, D.E., Seehausen, O., Sharpe, D., Silsbe, G.M., Sitoki, L., Tumwebaze, R., Tweddle, D., van de Wolfshaar, K.E., van Dijk, H., van Donk, E., van Rijssel, J.C., van Zwieten, P.A.M., Wanink, J., Witte, F. & Mooij, W.M. (2014)

Ecology and Society 19 (4):Art. 31 [Full text]

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

Kéfi, S., Guttal, V., Brock, W.A., Carpenter, S.R., Ellison, A.M., Livina, V.N., Seekell, D.A., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E.H. & Dakos, V. (2014)

PLoS ONE 9 (3):e92097 [Full text]

Tipping elements in the human intestinal ecosystem

Lahti, L., Salojärvi, J., Salonen, A., Scheffer, M. & De Vos, W.M. (2014)

Nature Communications 5 [Full text]

The sudden collapse of pollinator communities

Lever, J.J., van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M. & Bascompte, J. (2014)

Ecology Letters 17 (3):350-359 [Full text]

Pattern formation at multiple spatial scales drives the resilience of mussel bed ecosystems

Liu, Q.-X., Herman, P.M.J., Mooij, W.M., Huisman, J., Scheffer, M., Olff, H. & van de Koppel, J. (2014)

Nature Communications 5 [Full text]

The forgotten half of scientific thinking

Scheffer, M. (2014)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (17):6119 [Full text]

Why trees and shrubs but rarely trubs?

Scheffer, M., Vergnon, R., Cornelissen, J.H.C., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., van Nes, E.H. & Xu, C. (2014)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 29 (8):433-434 [Full text]

Interaction network based early-warning indicators of vegetation transitions

Tirabassi, G., Viebahn, J., Dakos, V., Dijkstra, H.A., Masoller, C., Rietkerk, M. & Dekker, S.C. (2014)

Ecological Complexity 19:148-157 [Full text]

Does aquaculture add resilience to the global food system?

Troell, M., Naylor, R.L., Metian, M., Beveridge, M., Tyedmers, P.H., Folke, C., Arrow, K.J., Barrett, S., Crépin, A.S., Ehrlich, P.R., Gren, A., Kautsky, N., Levin, S.A., Nyborg, K., Österblom, H., Polasky, S., Scheffer, M., Walker, B.H., Xepapadeas, T. & De Zeeuw, A. (2014)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (37):13257-13263 [Full text]

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

van de Leemput, I.A., Wichers, M., Cramer, A.O.J., Borsboom, D., Tuerlinckx, F., Kuppens, P., van Nes, E.H., Viechtbauer, W., Giltay, E.J., Aggen, S.H., Derom, C., Jacobs, N., Kendler, K.S., van der Maas, H.L.J., Neale, M.C., Peeters, F., Thiery, E., Zachar, P. & Scheffer, M. (2014)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (1):87-92 [Full text]

Nile perch (Lates niloticus, L.) and cichlids (Haplochromis spp.) in Lake Victoria: could prey mortality promote invasion of its predator?

van de Wolfshaar, K.E., HilleRisLambers, R., Goudswaard, K.P.C., Rijnsdorp, A.D. & Scheffer, M. (2014)

Theoretical Ecology:1-9 [Full text]

Tipping points in tropical tree cover: linking theory to data

Van Nes, E.H., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M. & Scheffer, M. (2014)

Global Change Biology 20 (3):1016–1021 [Full text]

Flickering as an early warning signal

Dakos, V., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2013)

Theoretical Ecology 6 (3):309-317 [Full text]

Was Lates Late? A Null Model for the Nile Perch Boom in Lake Victoria

Downing, A.S., Galic, N., Goudswaard, K.P.C., van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M., Witte, F. & Mooij, W.M. (2013)

PLoS ONE 8 (10):art. no. e76847 [Full text]

Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

Holmgren, M., Hirota, M., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2013)

Nature Climate Change 3 (8):755-758 [Full text]

Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries

Hughes, T.P., Carpenter, S., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M. & Walker, B. (2013)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 28 (7):389-395 [Full text]

Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts

Hughes, T.P., Linares, C., Dakos, V., van de Leemput, I.A. & van Nes, E.H. (2013)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 28 (3):149-155 [Full text]

Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

Kéfi, S., Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., Van Nes, E.H. & Rietkerk, M. (2013)

Oikos 122 (5):641-648 [Full text]

Bimodality in stable isotope composition facilitates the tracing of carbon transfer from macrophytes to higher trophic levels

Mendonça, R., Kosten, S., Lacerot, G., Mazzeo, N., Roland, F., Ometto, J.P., Paz, E.A., Bove, C.P., Bueno, N.C., Gomes, J.H.C. & Scheffer, M. (2013)

Hydrobiologia 710 (1):205-218 [Full text]

Changing weather conditions and floating plants in temperate drainage ditches

Peeters, E.T.H.M., van Zuidam, J.P., van Zuidam, B.G., Van Nes, E.H., Kosten, S., Heuts, P.G.M., Roijackers, R.M.M., Netten, J.J.C. & Scheffer, M. (2013)

Journal of Applied Ecology 50 (3):585-593 [Full text]

Migraine Strikes as Neuronal Excitability Reaches a Tipping Point

Scheffer, M., van den Berg, A. & Ferrari, M.D. (2013)

PLoS ONE 8 (8):art. no. e72514 [Full text]

Repeated parallel evolution reveals limiting similarity in subterranean diving beetles

Vergnon, R., Leijs, R., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2013)

American Naturalist 182 (1):67-75 [Full text]

Wang et al. reply

Wang, R., Dearing, J.A., Langdon, P.G., Zhang, E., Yang, X., Dakos, V. & Scheffer, M. (2013)

Nature 498 (7455):E12-E13 [Full text]

General resilience to cope with extreme events

Carpenter, S.R., Arrow, K.J., Barrett, S., Biggs, R., Brock, W.A., Crépin, A.S., Engström, G., Folke, C., Hughes, T.P., Kautsky, N., Li, C.Z., McCarney, G., Meng, K., Mäler, K.G., Polasky, S., Scheffer, M., Shogren, J., Sterner, T., Vincent, J.R., Walker, B., Xepapadeas, A. & de Zeeuw, A. (2012)

Sustainability 4 (12):3248-3259 [Full text]

Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data

Dakos, V., Carpenter, S.R., Brock, W.A., Ellison, A.M., Guttal, V., Ives, A.R., Kéfi, S., Livina, V., Seekell, D.A., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (7):e41010 [Full text]

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Dakos, V., Van Nes, E.H., D'Odorico, P. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Ecology 93 (2):264-271 [Full text]

The resilience and resistance of an ecosystem to a collapse of diversity

Downing, A.S., van Nes, E.H., Mooij, W.M. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (9):e46135 [Full text]

Does predator interference cause alternative stable states in multispecies communities?

Feng, J., Dakos, V. & van Nes, E.H. (2012)

Theoretical Population Biology 82 (3):170-176 [Full text]

Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models

Ives, A.R. & Dakos, V. (2012)

Ecosphere 3 (6):art58 [Full text]

Warmer climates boost cyanobacterial dominance in shallow lakes

Kosten, S., Huszar, V.L.M., Bécares, E., Costa, L.S., van Donk, E., Hansson, L.A., Jeppesen, E., Kruk, C., Lacerot, G., Mazzeo, N., De Meester, L., Moss, B., Lürling, M., Nõges, T., Romo, S. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Global Change Biology 18 (1):118-126 [Full text]

Bimodal transparency as an indicator for alternative states in South American lakes

Kosten, S., Vernooij, M., Van Nes, E.H., Sagrario, M.Á.G., Clevers, J.G.P.W. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Freshwater Biology 57 (6):1191-1201 [Full text]

Evolution of blind beetles in isolated aquifers: A test of alternative modes of speciation

Leijs, R., van Nes, E.H., Watts, C.H., Cooper, S.J.B., Humphreys, W.F. & Hogendoorn, K. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (3):e34260 [Full text]

Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

Lenton, T.M., Livina, V.N., Dakos, V. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Climate of the Past 8 (4):1127-1139 [Full text]

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: Comparing methods to improve robustness

Lenton, T.M., Livina, V.N., Dakos, V., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 370 (1962):1185-1204 [Full text]

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: A multiple method evaluation for management application

Lindegren, M., Dakos, V., Gröger, J.P., Gårdmark, A., Kornilovs, G., Otto, S.A. & Möllmann, C. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (7) [Full text]

Anticipating critical transitions

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S.R., Lenton, T.M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I.A., Levin, S.A., van Nes, E.H., Pascual, M. & Vandermeer, J. (2012)

Science 338 (6105):344-348 [Full text]

Thresholds for boreal biome transitions

Scheffer, M., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H. & Chapin, F.S. (2012)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (52):21384–21389 [Full text]

Ecosystem engineering by seagrasses interacts with grazing to shape an intertidal landscape

van der Heide, T., Eklöf, J.S., van Nes, E.H., van der Zee, E.M., Donadi, S., Weerman, E.J., Olff, H. & Eriksson, B.K. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (8):e42060 [Full text]

Response to comment on "Global resilience of tropical forest and Savanna to critical transitions"

Van Nes, E.H., Holmgren, M., Hirota, M. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Science 336 (6081):541 [Full text]

Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system

Veraart, A.J., Faassen, E.J., Dakos, V., van Nes, E.H., Lürling, M. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Nature 481 (7381):357-359 [Full text]

Emergent neutrality leads to multimodal species abundance distributions

Vergnon, R., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Nature Communications 3:663 [Full text]

Resonance of plankton communities with temperature fluctuations

Benincá, E., Dakos, V., Van Nes, E.H., Huisman, J. & Scheffer, M. (2011)

American Naturalist 178 (4):E85-E95 [Full text]

Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises?

Biggs, D., Biggs, R., Dakos, V., Scholes, R.J. & Schoon, M. (2011)

Ecology and Society 16 (2) [Full text]

Slowing down in spatially patterned ecosystems at the brink of collapse

Dakos, V., Kéfi, S., Rietkerk, M., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2011)

American Naturalist 177 (6):E153-E166 [Full text]

Trophic downgrading of planet earth

Estes, J.A., Terborgh, J., Brashares, J.S., Power, M.E., Berger, J., Bond, W.J., Carpenter, S.R., Essington, T.E., Holt, R.D., Jackson, J.B.C., Marquis, R.J., Oksanen, L., Oksanen, T., Paine, R.T., Pikitch, E.K., Ripple, W.J., Sandin, S.A., Scheffer, M., Schoener, T.W., Shurin, J.B., Sinclair, A.R.E., Soulé, M.E., Virtanen, R. & Wardle, D.A. (2011)

Science 333 (6040):301-306 [Full text]

Abrupt regime shifts in space and time along rivers and connected lake systems

Hilt, S., Köhler, J., Kozerski, H.P., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2011)

Oikos 120 (5):766-775 [Full text]

Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions

Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2011)

Science 334 (6053):232-235 [Full text]

Ambiguous climate impacts on competition between submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton in shallow lakes

Kosten, S., Jeppesen, E., Huszar, V.L., Mazzeo, N., Van Nes, E.H., Peeters, E.T. & Scheffer, M. (2011)

Freshwater Biology 56 (8):1540-1553 [Full text]

Allied attack: climate change and eutrophication

Moss, B., Kosten, S., Meerhoff, M., Battarbee, R.W., Jeppesen, E., Mazzeo, N., Havens, K., Lacerot, G., Liu, Z.W., De Meester, L., Paerl, H. & Scheffer, M. (2011)

Inland Waters 1 (2):101-105 [Full text]

Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate

Rietkerk, M., Brovkin, V., van Bodegom, P.M., Claussen, M., Dekker, S.C., Dijkstra, H.A., Goryachkin, S.V., Kabat, P., van Nes, E.H., Neutel, A.M., Nicholson, S.E., Nobre, C., Petoukhov, V., Provenzale, A., Scheffer, M. & Seneviratne, S.I. (2011)

Ecological Complexity 8 (3):223-228 [Full text]

Soil microbes drive the classic plant diversity-productivity pattern

Schnitzer, S.A., Klironomos, J.N., HilleRisLambers, J., Kinkel, L.L., Reich, P.B., Xiao, K., Rillig, M.C., Sikes, B.A., Callaway, R.M., Mangan, S.A., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2011)

Ecology 92 (2):296-303 [Full text]

The anthropocene: From global change to planetary stewardship

Steffen, W., Persson, Å., Deutsch, L., Zalasiewicz, J., Williams, M., Richardson, K., Crumley, C., Crutzen, P., Folke, C., Gordon, L., Molina, M., Ramanathan, V., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H.J. & Svedin, U. (2011)

Ambio 40 (7):739-761 [Full text]

Creation of a Gilded Trap by the High Economic Value of the Maine Lobster Fishery

Steneck, R.S., Hughes, T.P., Cinner, J.E., Adger, W.N., Arnold, S.N., Berkes, F., Boudreau, S.A., Brown, K., Folke, C., Gunderson, L., Olsson, P., Scheffer, M., Stephenson, E., Walker, B., Wilson, J. & Worm, B. (2011)

Conservation Biology 25 (5):904-912 [Full text]

Positive feedbacks in seagrass ecosystems - Evidence from large-scale empirical data

van der Heide, T., van Nes, E.H., van Katwijk, M.M., Olff, H. & Smolders, A.J.P. (2011)

PLoS ONE 6 (1):e16504 [Full text]

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts

Dakos, V., van Nes, E.H., Donangelo, R., Fort, H. & Scheffer, M. (2010)

Theoretical Ecology 3 (3):163-174 [Full text]

Early warnings for catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: Comparison between spatial and temporal indicators

Donangelo, R., Fort, H., Dakos, V., Scheffer, M. & Van Nes, E.H. (2010)

International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 20 (2):315-321 [Full text]

Resilience thinking: Integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability

Folke, C., Carpenter, S.R., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Chapin, T. & Rockström, J. (2010)

Ecology and Society 15 (4):20 [Full text]

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: Spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

Fort, H., Mazzeo, N., Scheffer, M. & Van Nes, E. (2010)

Journal of Physics: Conference Series 246:012035 [Full text]

The clumping transition in niche competition: A robust critical phenomenon

Fort, H., Scheffer, M. & Van Nes, E.H. (2010)

Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2010 (5):P05005 [Full text]

Navigating transformations in governance of Chilean marine coastal resources

Gelcich, S., Hughes, T.P., Olsson, P., Folke, C., Defeo, O., Fernández, M., Foale, S., Gunderson, L.H., Rodríguez-Sickert, C., Scheffer, M., Steneck, R.S. & Castilla, J.C. (2010)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107 (39):16794-16799 [Full text]

Strong facilitation in mild environments: The stress gradient hypothesis revisited

Holmgren, M. & Scheffer, M. (2010)

Journal of Ecology 98 (6):1269-1275 [Full text]

Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

Janse, J.H., Scheffer, M., Lijklema, L., Van Liere, L., Sloot, J.S. & Mooij, W.M. (2010)

Ecological Modelling 221 (4):654-665 [Full text]

Complex systems: Foreseeing tipping points

Scheffer, M. (2010)

Nature 467 (7314):411-412 [Full text]

Spatial self-organized patterning in seagrasses along a depth gradient of an intertidal ecosystem

Van Der Heide, T., Bouma, T.J., Van Nes, E.H., Van De Koppel, J., Scheffer, M., Roelofs, J.G.M., Van Katwijk, M.M. & Smolders, A.J.P. (2010)

Ecology 91 (2):362-369 [Full text]

Alternative stable states driven by density-dependent toxicity

van der Heide, T., van Nes, E.H., van Katwijk, M.M., Scheffer, M., Hendriks, A.J. & Smolders, A.J.P. (2010)

Ecosystems 13 (6):841-850 [Full text]

From scientific speculation to effective adaptive management: A case study of the role of social marketing in promoting novel restoration strategies for degraded dry lands

Westley, F., Holmgren, M. & Scheffer, M. (2010)

Ecology and Society 15 (3) [Full text]

The angiosperm radiation revisited, an ecological explanation for Darwin's 'abominable mystery'

Berendse, F. & Scheffer, M. (2009)

Ecology Letters 12 (9):865-872 [Full text]

Resilience: Accounting for the noncomputable

Carpenter, S.R., Folke, C., Scheffer, M. & Westley, F. (2009)

Ecology and Society 14 (1) [Full text]

Interannual variability in species composition explained as seasonally entrained chaos

Dakos, V., Benincá, E., Van Nes, E.H., Philippart, C.J.M., Scheffer, M. & Huisman, J. (2009)

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 276 (1669):2871-2880 [Full text]

The paradox of the clumps mathematically explained

Fort, H., Scheffer, M. & van Nes, E.H. (2009)

Theoretical Ecology 2 (3):171-176 [Full text]

Climate-related differences in the dominance of submerged macrophytes in shallow lakes

Kosten, S., Kamarainen, A., Jeppesen, E., Van Nes, E.H., Peeters, E.T.H.M., Mazzeo, N., Sass, L., Hauxwell, J., Hansel-welch, N., Lauridsen, T.L., Søndergaard, M., Bachmann, R.W., Lacerot, G. & Scheffer, M. (2009)

Global Change Biology 15 (10):2503-2517 [Full text]

Effects of submerged vegetation on water clarity across climates

Kosten, S., Lacerot, G., Jeppesen, E., Da Motta Marques, D., Van Nes, E.H., Mazzeo, N. & Scheffer, M. (2009)

Ecosystems 12 (7):1117-1129 [Full text]

Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate

Rietkerk, M., Brovkin, V., Van Bodegom, P.M., Claussen, M., Dekker, S.C., Dijkstra, H.A., Goryachkin, S.V., Kabat, P., Van Nes, E.H., Neutel, A.M., Nicholson, S.E., Nobre, C., Petoukhov, V., Provenzale, A., Scheffer, M. & Seneviratne, S.I. (2009)

Biogeosciences Discussions 6 (5):10121-10136 [Full text]

A safe operating space for humanity

Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Ã., Chapin, F.S., Lambin, E.F., Lenton, T.M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H.J., Nykvist, B., De Wit, C.A., Hughes, T., Van Der Leeuw, S., Rodhe, H., Sörlin, S., Snyder, P.K., Costanza, R., Svedin, U., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., Corell, R.W., Fabry, V.J., Hansen, J., Walker, B., Liverman, D., Richardson, K., Crutzen, P. & Foley, J.A. (2009)

Nature 461 (7263):472-475 [Full text]

Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity

Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, A., Chapin Iii, F.S., Lambin, E., Lenton, T.M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H.J., Nykvist, B., de Wit, C.A., Hughes, T., van der Leeuw, S., Rodhe, H., Sörlin, S., Snyder, P.K., Costanza, R., Svedin, U., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., Corell, R.W., Fabry, V.J., Hansen, J., Walker, B., Liverman, D., Richardson, K., Crutzen, P. & Foley, J. (2009)

Ecology and Society 14 (2) [Full text]

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E.H., Rietkerk, M. & Sugihara, G. (2009)

Nature 461 (7260):53-59 [Full text]

Chaos in a long-term experiment with a plankton community

Benincà, E., Huisman, J., Heerkloss, R., Jöhnk, K.D., Branco, P., van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M. & Ellner, S.P. (2008)

Nature 451 (7180):823-826 [Full text]

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E.H., Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V. & Held, H. (2008)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105 (38):14308–14312 [Full text]

Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management

deYoung, B., Barange, M., Beaugrand, G., Harris, R., Perry, R.I., Scheffer, M. & Werner, F. (2008)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 23 (7):402-409 [Full text]

Microscale vegetation-soil feedback boosts hysteresis in a regional vegetation-climate system

Janssen, R.H.H., Meinders, M.B.J., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2008)

Global Change Biology 14 (5):1104-1112 [Full text]

Pulse-driven loss of top-down control: The critical-rate hypothesis

Scheffer, M., Van Nes, E.H., Holmgren, M. & Hughes, T. (2008)

Ecosystems 11 (2):226-237 [Full text]

Adaptive management of the great barrier reef and the Grand Canyon world heritage areas

Hughes, T.P., Gunderson, L.H., Folke, C., Baird, A.H., Bellwood, D., Berkes, F., Crona, B., Helfgott, A., Leslie, H., Norberg, J., Nystrom, M., Olsson, P., Osterblom, H., Scheffer, M., Schuttenberg, H., Steneck, R.S., Tengoe, M., Troll, M., Walker, B., Wilson, J. & Worm, B. (2007)

Ambio 36 (7):586-592 [Full text]

Regime shifts in shallow lakes

Scheffer, M. & Jeppesen, E. (2007)

Ecosystems 10 (1):1-3 [Full text]

Shallow lakes theory revisited: various alternative regimes driven by climate, nutrients, depth and lake size

Scheffer, M. & van Nes, E.H. (2007)

Hydrobiologia 584:455-466 [Full text]

The evolutionary basis of rigidity: locks in cells, minds, and society

Scheffer, M. & Westley, F.R. (2007)

Ecology and Society 12 (2):36 [Full text]

Lake restoration in Denmark and The Netherlands: successes, failures and long-term effects

Søndergaard, M., Jeppesen, E., Lauridsen, T.L., Skov, C., Van Nes, E.H., Roijackers, R.M.M., Lammens, E.H.R.R. & Portielje, R. (2007)

Journal of Applied Ecology 44 (6):1095-1105 [Full text]

Positive feedbacks in seagrass ecosystems: implications for success in conservation and restoration

Van der Heide, T., van Nes, E.H., Geerling, G.W., Smolders, A.J.P., Bouma, T.J. & Van Katwijk, M.M. (2007)

Ecosystems 10 (8):1311-1322 [Full text]

Long transients near the ghost of a stable state in eutrophic shallow lakes with fluctuating water levels

Van Geest, G.J., Coops, H., Scheffer, M. & van Nes, E.H. (2007)

Ecosystems 10 (1):37-47 [Full text]

Reduced top–down control of phytoplankton in warmer climates can be explained by continuous fish reproduction

Van Leeuwen, E., Lacerot, G., Van Nes, E.H., Hemerik, L. & Scheffer, M. (2007)

Ecological Modelling doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.039 [Full text]

Possible mechanisms for a marine benthic regime shift in the North Sea

Van Nes, E.H., Amaro, T., Scheffer, M. & Duineveld, G.C.A. (2007)

Marine Ecology Progress Series 330:39–47 [Full text]

A theory for cyclic shifts between alternative states in shallow lakes

Van Nes, E.H., Rip, W.J. & Scheffer, M. (2007)

Ecosystems 10 (1):17-27 [Full text]

Slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift

Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2007)

American Naturalist 169 (6):738–747 [Full text]

Ecology - Globalization, roving bandits, and marine resources

Berkes, F., Hughes, T.P., Steneck, R.S., Wilson, J.A., Bellwood, D.R., Crona, B., Folke, C., Gunderson, L.H., Leslie, H.M., Norberg, J., Nystrom, M., Olsson, P., Osterblom, H., Scheffer, M. & Worm, B. (2006)

Science 311 (5767):1557-1558 [Full text]

Keeping bandits at bay? Response

Hughes, T.P., Berkes, F., Steneck, R.S., Wilson, J.A., Bellwood, D.R., Crona, B., Folke, C., Gunderson, L.H., Leslie, H.M., Norberg, J., Nystrom, M., Olsson, P., Osterblom, H., Scheffer, M. & Worm, B. (2006)

Science 313 (5787):614-614 [Full text]

Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change

Scheffer, M., Brovkin, V. & Cox, P.M. (2006)

Geophysical Research Letters 33 (doi:10.1029/2005GL025044):L10702 [Full text]

Small habitat size and isolation can promote species richness: second-order effects on biodiversity in shallow lakes and ponds

Scheffer, M., Van Geest, G.J., Zimmer, K., Jeppesen, E., Søndergaard, M., Butler, M.G., Hanson, M.A., Declerck, S. & De Meester, L. (2006)

Oikos 112 (1):227-231 [Full text]

Self-organized similarity, the evolutionary emergence of groups of similar species

Scheffer, M. & Van Nes, E.H. (2006)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America 103 (16):6230-6235 [Full text]

Impacts of agricultural phosphorus use in catchments on shallow lake water quality: about buffers, time delays and equilibria

Schippers, P., van de Weerd, H., de Klein, J., de Jong, B. & Scheffer, M. (2006)

Science of the Total Environment 369 (1-3):280-294 [Full text]

Cascading effects of overfishing marine systems

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S.R. & De Young, B. (2005)

Trends in Ecology & Evolution 20 (11):579-581 [Full text]

Synergy between small- and large-scale feedbacks of vegetation on the water cycle

Scheffer, M., Holmgren, M., Brovkin, V. & Claussen, M. (2005)

Global Change Biology 11 (7):1003-1012 [Full text]

Implications of spatial heterogeneity for regime shifts in ecosystems

Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2005)

Ecology 86 (7):1797–1807 [Full text]

A strategy to improve the contribution of complex simulation models to ecological theory

Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2005)

Ecological Modelling 185 (2-4):153-164 [Full text]

Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management

Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L. & Holling, C.S. (2004)

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics 35:557-581 [Full text]

Overexploitation of renewable resources by ancient societies and the role of sunk-cost effects

Janssen, M.A. & Scheffer, M. (2004)

Ecology and Society 9 (1):http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art6 [Full text]

Mechanisms for marine regime shifts: Can we use lakes as microcosms for oceans?

Scheffer, M. & van Nes, E.H. (2004)

Progress In Oceanography 60 (2-4):303-319 [Full text]

Large species shifts triggered by small forces

Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2004)

American Naturalist 164 (2):255-266 [Full text]

Impacts of multiple stressors on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: the role of species co-tolerance

Vinebrooke, R.D., Cottingham, K.L., Norberg, J., Scheffer, M., Dodson, S.I., Maberly, S.C. & Sommer, U. (2004)

Oikos 104 (3):451-457 [Full text]

Regime shifts in the Sahara and Sahel: Interactions between ecological and climatic systems in Northern Africa

Foley, J.A., Coe, M.T., Scheffer, M. & Wang, G. (2003)

Ecosystems 6 (6):524-539 [Full text]

Sunk-cost effects and vulnerability to collapse in ancient societies

Janssen, M.A., Kohler, T.A. & Scheffer, M. (2003)

Current Anthropology 44 (5):722-728 [Full text]

Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation

Scheffer, M. & Carpenter, S.R. (2003)

Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18 (12):648-656 [Full text]

Why plankton communities have no equilibrium: solutions to the paradox

Scheffer, M., Rinaldi, S., Huisman, J. & Weissing, F.J. (2003)

Hydrobiologia 491 (1):9-19 [Full text]

Floating plant dominance as a stable state

Scheffer, M., Szabo, S., Gragnani, A., van Nes, E.H., Rinaldi, S., Kautsky, N., Norberg, J., Roijackers, R.M.M. & Franken, R.J.M. (2003)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America 100 (7):4040-4045 [Full text]

Slow response of societies to new problems: Causes and costs

Scheffer, M., Westley, F. & Brock, W. (2003)

Ecosystems 6 (5):493-502 [Full text]

Alternative attractors may boost uncertainty and sensitivity in ecological models

Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2003)

Ecological Modelling 159 (2-3):117-124 [Full text]

Dominance of charophytes in eutrophic shallow lakes--when should we expect it to be an alternative stable state?

Van Nes, E.H., Scheffer, M., Van den Berg, M.S. & Coops, H. (2002)

Aquatic Botany 72 (3-4):275-296 [Full text]

El Niño as a window of opportunity for the restoration of degraded arid ecosystems

Holmgren, M. & Scheffer, M. (2001)

Ecosystems 4 (2):151-159 [Full text]

El Niño effects on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems

Holmgren, M., Scheffer, M., Ezcurra, E., Gutiérrez, J.R. & Mohren, G.M.J. (2001)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 16 (2):89-94 [Full text]

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S.R., Foley, J.A., Folke, C. & Walker, B. (2001)

Nature 413:591-596 [Full text]

Geometric analysis of ecological models with slow and fast processes

Rinaldi, S. & Scheffer, M. (2000)

Ecosystems 3 (6):507-521 [Full text]

Socioeconomic mechanisms preventing optimum use of ecosystem services: an interdisciplinary theoretical analysis

Scheffer, M., Brock, W. & Westley, F. (2000)

Ecosystems 3 (5):451-471 [Full text]

Top-down control of cyanobacteria: A theoretical analysis

Gragnani, A., Scheffer, M. & Rinaldi, S. (1999)

American Naturalist 153 (1):59-72 [Full text]

Searching explanations of nature in the mirror world of math

Scheffer, M. (1999)

Conservation Ecology 3 (2):11 [Full text]

The interplay of facilitation and competition in plant communities

Holmgren, M., Scheffer, M. & Huston, M.A. (1997)

Ecology 78 (7):1966-1975 [Full text]

On the dominance of filamentous cyanobacteria in shallow, turbid lakes

Scheffer, M., Rinaldi, S., Gragnani, A., Mur, L.R. & Van Nes, E.H. (1997)

Ecology 78 (1):272-282 [Full text]

Seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae explained as a periodically forced predator-prey system.

Scheffer, M., Rinaldi, S., Kuznetsov, Y.A. & Van Nes, E.H. (1997)

Oikos 80:519-532 [Full text]

Implications of spatial heterogeneity for the paradox of enrichment

Scheffer, M. & De Boer, R.J. (1995)

Ecology 76 (7):2270-2277 [Full text]

Seasonality and chaos in a plankton-fish model

Doveri, F., Scheffer, M., Rinaldi, S., Muratori, S. & Kuznetsov, Y.A. (1993)

Theoretical Population Biology 43:159-183 [Full text]

Alternative equilibria in shallow lakes

Scheffer, M., Hosper, S.H., Meijer, M.L., Moss, B. & Jeppesen, E. (1993)

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8 (8):275-279 [Full text]

Should we expect strange attractors behind plankton dynamics: And if so, should we bother?

Scheffer, M. (1991)

Journal of Plankton Research 13:1291-1306 [Full text]

Multiplicity of stable states in freshwater systems

Scheffer, M. (1990)

Hydrobiologia 200/201:475-486 [Full text]

Alternative stable states in eutrophic, shallow freshwater systems: a minimal model

Scheffer, M. (1989)

Hydrobiological bulletin 23:73-83 [Full text]