SparcS Center


Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data

Dakos, V., Carpenter, S.R., Brock, W.A., Ellison, A.M., Guttal, V., Ives, A.R., Kéfi, S., Livina, V., Seekell, D.A., van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (7):e41010 [Full text]

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Dakos, V., Van Nes, E.H., D'Odorico, P. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Ecology 93 (2):264-271 [Full text]

The resilience and resistance of an ecosystem to a collapse of diversity

Downing, A.S., van Nes, E.H., Mooij, W.M. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (9):e46135 [Full text]

Does predator interference cause alternative stable states in multispecies communities?

Feng, J., Dakos, V. & van Nes, E.H. (2012)

Theoretical Population Biology 82 (3):170-176 [Full text]

Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models

Ives, A.R. & Dakos, V. (2012)

Ecosphere 3 (6):art58 [Full text]

Warmer climates boost cyanobacterial dominance in shallow lakes

Kosten, S., Huszar, V.L.M., Bécares, E., Costa, L.S., van Donk, E., Hansson, L.A., Jeppesen, E., Kruk, C., Lacerot, G., Mazzeo, N., De Meester, L., Moss, B., Lürling, M., Nõges, T., Romo, S. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Global Change Biology 18 (1):118-126 [Full text]

Bimodal transparency as an indicator for alternative states in South American lakes

Kosten, S., Vernooij, M., Van Nes, E.H., Sagrario, M.Á.G., Clevers, J.G.P.W. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Freshwater Biology 57 (6):1191-1201 [Full text]

Evolution of blind beetles in isolated aquifers: A test of alternative modes of speciation

Leijs, R., van Nes, E.H., Watts, C.H., Cooper, S.J.B., Humphreys, W.F. & Hogendoorn, K. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (3):e34260 [Full text]

Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

Lenton, T.M., Livina, V.N., Dakos, V. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Climate of the Past 8 (4):1127-1139 [Full text]

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: Comparing methods to improve robustness

Lenton, T.M., Livina, V.N., Dakos, V., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 370 (1962):1185-1204 [Full text]

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: A multiple method evaluation for management application

Lindegren, M., Dakos, V., Gröger, J.P., Gårdmark, A., Kornilovs, G., Otto, S.A. & Möllmann, C. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (7) [Full text]

Anticipating critical transitions

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S.R., Lenton, T.M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I.A., Levin, S.A., van Nes, E.H., Pascual, M. & Vandermeer, J. (2012)

Science 338 (6105):344-348 [Full text]

Thresholds for boreal biome transitions

Scheffer, M., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H. & Chapin, F.S. (2012)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (52):21384–21389 [Full text]

Ecosystem engineering by seagrasses interacts with grazing to shape an intertidal landscape

van der Heide, T., Eklöf, J.S., van Nes, E.H., van der Zee, E.M., Donadi, S., Weerman, E.J., Olff, H. & Eriksson, B.K. (2012)

PLoS ONE 7 (8):e42060 [Full text]

Response to comment on "Global resilience of tropical forest and Savanna to critical transitions"

Van Nes, E.H., Holmgren, M., Hirota, M. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Science 336 (6081):541 [Full text]

Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system

Veraart, A.J., Faassen, E.J., Dakos, V., van Nes, E.H., Lürling, M. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Nature 481 (7381):357-359 [Full text]

Emergent neutrality leads to multimodal species abundance distributions

Vergnon, R., Van Nes, E.H. & Scheffer, M. (2012)

Nature Communications 3:663 [Full text]